Regarding Turkey, Ian Bremer said President Erdoğan was in a stronger position today against the country’s fragmented opposition, and that geopolitical opportunities abounded in the region.
In this interview with Kathimerini, Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremer hailed Greece as “the world’s greatest turnaround story” over the past year. During the discussion, he offers his predictions for 2024 regarding the trajectory of major powers and ongoing conflicts around the world.
Bremer described the difficult situation facing the United States, calling it the most “dysfunctional” political system in the world, especially as the country enters a critical election year. He delved into the difficult situation facing the Chinese government and the strained European economy, and emphasized that a strong supranational governance system is an important safety valve.
But his outlook on developments in the two most publicized global conflicts is far from rosy. In Ukraine, he recognizes that Kiev has no chance of victory, while in Gaza he explores the potential for escalation of hostilities and the inherent risks associated with the radicalization of all involved.
What do you predict about the United States, the world’s largest economy, and the upcoming elections?
The US economy appears to be the strongest among the world’s advanced economies, while China’s economy is particularly vulnerable. This is not the case with the G7’s most dysfunctional political system (and by a growing margin). One of the few things Americans agree on is that they don’t want an election this year, especially between two likely candidates. Leading the news in 2024 is not what you want.
What is the relationship between China, the second largest economic power, the United States, and Europe?
China’s economy is in trouble on almost every front. The good news is that leadership is stable, strengthened, and conscious. The bad news is that there is a lack of dramatic, transformative reforms (which Xi has no intention of enacting), which means things won’t get better any time soon. This confirms the desire for more stable relations with the US and Europe, but a lack of trust and many areas of conflict, particularly around technology and industrial policy, make for a difficult environment. There is.
What do you think of the progress of the Ukraine war and Russia’s position?
It was an inflection point in the war, the Ukrainians were no longer on the path to “victory” and the war had clearly fallen out of the headlines, especially outside of Europe. If you are Zelenskiy or Poland, this is not the news you want to hear. NATO peaked in his 2023, and so did transatlantic relations. It will be increasingly difficult to win over Europe and the United States, and Putin knows this.
What about today’s other major conflict, the war in Gaza?
There are many possibilities for the situation to worsen, including expansion into the West Bank and Lebanon, trouble with Iranian proxies, and Islamic extremist terrorism. Meanwhile, both Israelis and Palestinians are becoming increasingly radicalized by the fighting.
“Europeans are lucky to have a strong supranational governance system, the European Union. Otherwise, this would feel like a crisis.”
Closer to home, we would like to hear your views on Europe, its economy, and some of the major issues facing Europe, such as immigration, the expansion of the Western Balkans, and Ukraine.
The economy will remain strained by rising input costs, the need to increase defense spending, headwinds from U.S. and other industrial policies, and political infighting over Ukraine’s recovery and immigration. Europeans are fortunate to have a strong supranational governance system: the European Union. Otherwise, this would feel like a crisis. As it stands, the country remains remarkably politically stable, despite increasing political, economic, social and security pressures. At least for now…
What is the situation in the UK as the Labor Party prepares to take power?
Since Labor is expected to have an absolute majority, it will be a fairly simple change of government. Correspondingly, relations with the European Union are expected to become more stable.
In what direction do you think Turkey will move economically and geopolitically?
We finally have a capable economic team. You can do that right now too. Erdoğan has given them the ability to make rational decisions, especially since he is in a stronger position against a fragmented opposition at home and the region is rich in geopolitical opportunities.
Speaking of Turkey, what do you think will happen with Sweden joining NATO?
After all, this shouldn’t be controversial. Turkey is trying to gain as much influence as possible without disrupting the process. We’ve experienced something like this before.
Finally, please tell us your thoughts on Greece’s image and outlook.
It is worthy of The Economist’s 2023 Country of the Year. Popular leadership, tough reforms, and the world’s greatest turnaround story.