2023 was a breakthrough year for artificial intelligence, with large-scale language models making the leap from research curiosity to the most popular consumer product. Considering the current level of hype, next year could be the make or break for this technology.
When ChatGPT was released in late 2022, its huge success surprised everyone, including its developer, OpenAI. The chatbot has become the fastest growing consumer product in history, reaching 100 million active users in just two months.
This started an AI arms race between big tech companies and startups, with everyone trying to catch OpenAI. Meanwhile, traditional companies of all kinds have also jumped on the generative AI bandwagon. But it’s still in its early stages, and despite real promise, the technology has its problems.
These AI models tend to “hallucinate,” if you want to make that up, but it’s not at all clear that the quality of their output is good enough to create a useful product. The fact that they are trained on vast amounts of data scraped from the internet also raises many complex questions about privacy, bias, and copyright.
Nevertheless, the general consensus is that the generative AI boom is just beginning, and 2024 could be the year of another breakthrough. Here we’ve collected some of the most interesting predictions about where technology is likely to go next year.
One of the most consistent themes is that AI will become increasingly integrated into the world of work. Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, predicts that companies will adopt AI tools in large numbers, leading to significant productivity gains. The impact, he said, will primarily be on white-collar “knowledge workers,” but he expects it to increase the number of jobs, rather than completely automating them.
This is made possible by bringing AI to many of the software tools that employees use on a daily basis. “We expect generative AI to be integrated into enterprise software, giving more knowledge workers the tools they need to work more efficiently and make better decisions,” Deloitte US Technology Division said leader Paul Silvergrate. “The way we work will change significantly from now on.”
PwC predicts that AI in the workplace will be particularly challenging for managers. Managers must not only learn how to use AI themselves, but also develop the ability to supervise teams where much of the work is done by AI. Agent. “Few leaders today have both organizational and AI knowledge, and it is important to bridge this gap,” the report states.
Another challenge for companies will be the use of “shadow AI.” Companies may want to limit or control employees’ use of these tools for privacy or security reasons, but employees may use unapproved tools to make their jobs easier. . “Well-intentioned employees will continue to use generative AI tools to improve productivity,” said Jay Upchurch, chief information officer at SAS. “And CIOs will struggle every day with how much to adopt these generative AI tools and what guardrails to put in place to protect their organizations.”
It’s not just the world of work that will be transformed by AI. Anish Acharya, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, believes this technology will finally enable smooth voice interactions. While voice assistants like Siri and Cortana have had only partial success at best, generative AI could eventually lead to apps with human-level conversational capabilities, making the technology increasingly useful. This may lead to further integration into daily life.
Generative AI doesn’t just make it easier to communicate with machines. Peter Norvig, a distinguished academic researcher at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, predicts that by 2024, computers will work autonomously on behalf of users, connecting to other services and making reservations without user interaction. We believe we will see the rise of AI-powered agents that can plan trips. Intervene directly.
And as companies combine technology with existing services, most people will be using AI tools without realizing it, according to a Forrester report. From Adobe Photoshop’s ability to add and remove visual elements in response to simple text prompts, to Google’s AI-enhanced search results and LinkedIn’s auto-generated post content, this technology is changing our digital lives. is permeating every aspect of the world.
As it penetrates deeper into our daily lives, the underlying technology will continue to evolve. Sarah Hooker, director of the research institute Cohere For AI, says that by 2024, models will be much more efficient and AI will be able to run on more modest hardware. There will also be a big push towards multimodality, rather than building models designed to handle only language and images. “Models will be able to more closely resemble human intelligence and process multiple sensory inputs simultaneously,” Hooker said. turing post.
Efforts to improve AI efficiency may be important next year. The Forrester report notes that this year’s AI boom has pushed production of specialized AI chips, such as GPUs, to their limits. The shortage is likely to last until 2024, potentially thwarting the ambitions of many companies. “We expect a pragmatic approach to AI driven by availability, silicon economics, and sustainability,” the report states. These influences will put pressure on businesses to pursue applications with the clearest ROI.
Some people are more pessimistic. CCS Insight says the generative AI sector will see a “cold shower” as companies figure out the cost and complexity associated with building the technology, especially given regulatory uncertainty and other risks. I’m predicting. “We’re big fans of AI,” said chief analyst Ben Wood. CNBC. “But for many organizations and developers, it will be prohibitively expensive.”
tech crunch It also predicts that some of the bold claims made by the technology’s promoters will likely be reversed in 2024. “We expect significant customer withdrawal from AI tools as the benefits do not justify the costs and risks,” he wrote. TechCrunch Devin Coldwey. “Features will continue to grow and advance, but not all products in 2023 will survive. There will be a round of consolidation as those who rode the wave decline and are consumed. I guess.”
Ultimately, it is difficult to predict where AI will go in 2024. Before ChatGPT was released, no one could have predicted this year’s explosive progress, and the billions of dollars poured into research over the past year could lead to even more breakthroughs in 2024. there is. Either way, it’s a possibility. It is inevitable that AI will become ever-present in every part of our lives.
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